Future China: A Peaceful Power? | Yunling Zhang | TEDxKFAS


Translator: Jaegun Lee
Reviewer: Denise RQ Ladies and gentlemen, it is my great pleasure
to talk about China because China is really a great focus. Wherever you go, they talk about China. Great attention. Why? I think, number one: China is too fast. Three decades ago,
when China started its reform, nobody projected
that China could move so fast from a very small economy and now became number 2 in GDP size. In 2010, when Chinese GDP just overpassed Japan in US dollar parity, just a little bit. What happened today, 5 years later? More than doubled. So it’s very fast. So when we talk about 2025, what about it? We call now China–
it turned to be a new normal. New normal moderate growth rate. A few people probably
think that’s possible because new normal,
according to Chinese standard is about 7% so it’s already not normal
for many, many countries. So a question mark. Second reason, I think,
is it is big, it’s too big. The population. Human beings
have never experienced such a process mobilizing more than 10 billion population and let 10 billion people
to be rich in a short time. So the big population
is a good thing and a bad thing. Now, almost every country welcomes
Chinese people for purchasing power. Our Korean friends realize this,
understand this better than any country. But at the same time, they worried
about the flood of Chinese people, increasing investments,
and too high purchasing power. So big population
is also a big question mark. The third reason, I think,
is it’s too different. It has a different system, still led and continues to be led
by the Communist Party. At the end of Cold War, we had a saying
that it’s the end of history, but here in China is still different,
and it continues to be different. [Can the Chinese different political
system can sustain itself?] What does it mean? I remember about two weeks ago,
I was in Iran, discussing with scholars
including religious scholars. They put a lot of expectation
on China’s future. They told me,
“We do not respect Chinese economy, we expect Chinese political dimension
which would bring a different system to the world,
a different civilization.” Believe it or not,
I think that’s probably true. So China is different. We’re so used to having
this Western democratic system. Now you have a big country,
it will continue like this, but what does this mean? Many countries probably
will learn from China, and that’s a big challenge for the existing
dominating political systems. So also a big question: whether
it can sustain, what kind of impact, but before that,
let me give you the answers; I’d like to start with China’s dream. Because China’s dream is a big answer to all of these questions. Many people ask me why China dreams, why Xi Jinping picked up
this dream for China. Why does China dream? I think for Chinese people, especially those my age
– I’m 70 years old – we understand that quite well, because China used to be a great power, but it fell down in modern times. And many Chinese had a dream. China could come back to the world stage, could be a great power again. And few people
would believe it at that time, Chinese used to call little Japan [a country] that could defeat
the Chinese naval fleet, could invade China
for more than one decade. So they think it is
China’s problem, its system. So we want to be back,
we want to be prosperous. Chinese suffered too much. Also China had internal riots,
internal conflicts. By 1949, the People’s Republic was established, and it became
a new turning point for China. It ended internal riots
on the mainland, at least, and then, starting from that, the Chinese leaders
and the government [had] a dream to be a big power again,
as quickly as possible. I remember we had a plan
to overpass Britain within 5 years, catch up with the US within 15 years. That’s why we had a great leap forward. And we thought it was very easy
if people worked hard. But it’s a failed story. Then we had the Cultural Revolution, and China almost fell, [found itself] on the edge of collapse. Those are the original words
of Deng Xiaoping. So, the Chinese leaders decided
to conduct a new policy: reform and opening. Reform and opening by two means: reform and a planning system; that showed that is a failure. Opening the country, to mobilize its own advantage
of cheap labor and vast land to attract foreign investments. So when they started this,
China developed so fast. They mobilized the dream again. So leaders [took] two steps
towards China’s dream. We call it two one hundred years. One hundred year: The Communist Party’s
establishment in 1920. So that is, by 2020, China will become a Xiaokang,
comprehensive Xiaokang, that is, provide welfare
to all Chinese people. That’s really a big dream. Because for more than 100 years, Chinese people never enjoyed
this comprehensive welfare. Hunger and disorder, unstable life,
the Cultural Revolution and so on. That is why Xi Jinping
picked up this dream for China. Because 2020: what does it mean? In his term. According to our political arrangement, at least he could be
on the leading power for 10 years. That is 2023. So 2020 is his responsibility to realize the first step
towards the dream, by the 100 years of Communist Party who considered to be unified, integrated, end the internal turmoil in modern China, and to be a comprehensive Xiaokang state. The second step will be taken
by the Chinese leaders in 2050. That is, by the People’s Republic,
100 years. So Chinese always think in 100 years. It’s a short time
according to Chinese history. A long time, but a short time
for the Chinese people. Because we have
more than 100 years of declining and then, we have another 200 years of picking up, rising again. So by 2025, it’s still a half step
to the second step dream. That is to be a developed country. It’s not a well developed country; it’s only mid-level
developed country at the time. So the average of Chinese GDP
is still in the middle, not on the top. So, even if by 2025, China becomes
number one economy in GDP size, as Professor Zhu said, it does not represent everything. The average income is still low,
and many other [things]. So it’s not easy. The Chinese are seeking
this transition process as 100 years. I remember the story this year during the Lianghui, the Congress meeting, and CPPCC conference
– I’m a member of CPPCC – Correspondents asked me, what do you think of One Belt One Road? How much time
does China need to finish it? I said we need at least 100 years. So correspondents outlined the topic, “Professor Zhang said
One Belt One Road needs 100 years.” But it’s not a joke, actually. If you really build
a well-developed region connected by all kinds of advanced infrastructures
to let region become prosperous, it needs a longer time probably. But we want to make the dream come true. That is I think the most important thing. As I said, it’s not easy. We realize that it’s not easy. Because China is now experiencing a very important, grand transformation. The first one is economy. China is enjoying
this opening, cheap labor, supporting government policy export,
but now no longer. We have to change, we have to move
to a higher stage, to restructure, You have to mobilize domestic amount, you have to be an innovative economy
rather than just copying. Labor cost should increase.
So you have to change. Transformation of economy
is a very hard process. And come to the new normal, and we thought
this new normal could be 7 to 6%. But there’re great difficulties. Currently, you see a lot of numbers
of factories have closed down, have to move to new areas. And also, China’s
number one export capacity; where can China restructure? To move to developed countries?
Already enough, already full. Developing countries
need a new dynamic force. Later I’ll talk about it. That’s probably the story
behind why we need One Belt One Road infrastructure,
new economies. So I think this transition,
this transformation is a great difficulty,
but we can manage to do it. And also we have to change from a government-led
to a market-led economy. That happened in Korea in the past. Second, I think the change of society: grand transformation
from a rural to a urbanized society. Currently, we have a registered, an urbanization rate about 35%. People living in urban areas
are about half of it. But by 2025, I think, at least 65-70%. That means, in the next 10 years, you have to mobilize,
remove 300 million people and change their lives
from rural to urban. That means a lot of things. Not just economy,
not just jobs, everything. It’s a grand transformation. During this transformation, it is possible to have many problems including social riots. And also, this time it’s different. In the past, people were just searching
for jobs and a higher income. But now, they want to have a better life – clean air, good education, and so on. Third one: the most important thing
is a system transformation. We have to move to a legal-based
political social system. So from a personal leadership, party leadership to a legal-based system. Recently, we had a great debate
whether it’s party-led or law-led. Where is the party’s place? So the answer is very clear, the consensus is
that the party has to follow the law. The legal system is not easy. But we’re determined to do.
We have no other choice, that’s the dream. And also, I think, China wants to be
a new power, different from the old one. China is committed to follow
the road of development and peace. A different road
from the other old rising powers, because old rising powers mean war, expansion, replacement
of the existing dominant. But China does not want
to do that; it’s not easy. Because there are three major challenges. One challenge is domestic. Because people want
to be a big power, to show their power, the pressure for the leaders to use
that power, including the military one, is very strong. The second, managing disputes.
We have so many disputes. We have to manage them well, not to let them turn
into a big war, confrontation. The third one, key issue:
how to handle China-US relationship. China is committed to be a new power, so China calls on
this new power relationship. What does it mean
a new power relationship? That means consultation,
discussion, cooperation. Now, fortunately, we have
more than 100 platforms for this consultation, discussion
on high level, mid-level, low level. So it’s open; unlike the Cold War period, with only the U.S.,
the Soviet Union, very few. But now, every day. Then there is cooperation. I think the two countries on both sides
realize that it’s so dangerous, risky, if two countries are really confronted. There’s no winner. So that’s the basic belief. Because in the past, the two powers,
the emerging power or the existing power, they always believed there is a winner. But now nobody believes there is a winner. So if nobody believes there is a winner,
why would you launch a war? So they have to try to manage
conflicts, try to find ways. Do not believe media everyday reports
and how they fight each other, but at the same time,
you have to watch another process that is careful, cautious discussions, searching for cooperation,
any kind of possibilities. When we talk about 2025,
and China’s future, we realize that the dream
is our shared future. So for one thing,
China keeps its commitment to be a peaceful rise,
to be a different power. At the same time, let us work together
to create an environment which makes China possible
to be a different power. I see my time is over,
thank you so much for listening. (Applause)

27 thoughts on “Future China: A Peaceful Power? | Yunling Zhang | TEDxKFAS

  1. We as African people love you Chinese people-.. You are not like the white mans world your are different.. Ass black man the yellow man has always been more nice to me then the white man, They kill us and made us Slavs as,, but you Chinese helping us.. we will not forget you,, and china will be the leader of the world.. fuck Zionist Illuminati Satan worshipers american.. The real and only god is will judge them.. hard what they use to do hear in earth….worshiping the devil our ´worst enemy,, but the dont no..

  2. 约翰一书 2:22Chinese Contemporary Bible (CCB)

    22 谁是说谎的呢?不就是那否认耶稣是基督的吗?那不承认父和子的就是敌基督者。

  3. 1 John 2:22King James Version (KJV)

    22 Who is a liar but he that denieth that Jesus is the Christ? He is antichrist, that denieth the Father and the Son.

  4. china wants to steal the land around its border from neighboring countries and chee ping ping is the new ali baba of 21th century hhaaa ha what a peaceful country it is

  5. how come china is peaceful power when he invading neighboring countries?. Publishing a fake map , building military defence, and disobeying UNCLOS.

    Sir i admire china for being one of the great capitalers in the world. But not in telling lies about china sea!

  6. How could such a propaganda of the Chinese Communist Party be allowed to be on TED???????? How much money did you collect from the CCP huh? WTF

  7. Future China: A Peaceful Power? Yes, under one condition which is every country in the world must kiss China's ass, do as they say and you will all have to eat dog meat fried rice.

  8. China is biggest terrorist nation who uses Pak & NK to blackmail everyone in the world to be with them if they want peace! No more bullying or coercions! Xis hegemonic policies will never be accepted! Vacate the Islands in SCS!

  9. Has China been involved in as many wars as the US? Does it have as many nuclear weapons? How many countries has it unleased weapons on recently. Answer none. Look at reality not through fear or nationalism. Is China aggressive to others in diplomatic affairs and does it get involved in others politics? Reality is hard to face when it is viewed through fear. The US has killed more people than any other country internationally, but I suspect some would try and defend these atrocities. If China does attack others and only then is there substance to the fear. Remember gun boat diplomacy on China from the past.

  10. feel like most chinese ppl dont like government at all, most ppl don’t really want to rude by other people. People only care about their own interest. Which creat a gap between the people。

  11. Peace would be nice. But China cant promise peace. Thats dishonest. Chinese history is filled with war. And China didnt become the world's largest country by land through pacifism.

  12. It hink his prescriptions for China's future would be disastrous for the people. The trend needs to be away from big industry to small communities where individuals count and can find succour. The path of development is tricky if one loses perspective on the needs of the individual. Ther new silk road is a good idea for world peace if China establishes great small communities along the way.

  13. it is hard to understand why a nation set 100-year-plan,especially some government just last 4years. If they could wear off the western glass for seeing China , use another mindset, maybe a new world appears

  14. One sucks thing for most Chinese speaker is they can't talk on fluent phrases. They have oppressed for long time alright !? As far as I know, Chinese were never good at public speaking. I don't know why they keep doing it.

  15. Why china move so fast we all know Hacks and Theft of IDEAS and a lot of other things .is shame you guys are welcome in TED talks.

  16. The People’s Republic of China is ruled by the communist party, more people have died because of their rule than any other in the history of humanity! A democratic China would be awesome:)…

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